Contributed talk · C1-01
Climatic warming drives directional changes in fish population dynamics across the Atlantic Ocean
Presenting author Mu-Hsiang Wang
National Taiwan University
6 November · 14:05–14:20 · C1 · B1C Auditorium
Abstract
Ocean warming alters marine population dynamics, yet species differ in their sensitivity to climatic change. We used empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) to quantify causal influences of sea surface temperature (SST) on fish biomass across multiple Atlantic fisheries surveys. Overall, SST causal strength was positively associated with the magnitude of biomass trends, and this relationship strengthened with increasing regional SST trends, indicating widespread coupling between ocean warming and fish population dynamics. Mixed-effects models showed that SST causal strength decreased with species’ thermal preference but increased with habitat depth range, suggesting stronger SST–biomass coupling in colder-water species and those with broader depth ranges. Among biomass-declining populations, 40.8% exhibited significant SST–biomass causal convergence, with cold-water species predominating. Further analysis revealed that species with lower thermal preferences, lower latitudes, and western Atlantic distributions were more likely to experience both biomass declines and significant SST causal effects. Collectively, our results identify ecological and geographic characteristics associated with SST-linked fish biomass declines and provide a broad-scale framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine populations and fisheries to ocean warming.